Politics of “new provinces”

What is more hypocritical is the changing status of the political parties in Pakistan, who are presently seen playing electoral politics, by asking for creation of “new provinces”. Not that suddenly, the political class of Pakistan has become sensitive to the people’s problem, but that there is much more politics behind the step. No doubt that the idea of creating more provinces will help governance and it will address the issues of neglected parts of the country suffering from uneven development that has been taking places for over 60 years now. So then, what’s the fuss all about?

Feudally oppressed, deliberately kept underdeveloped and family owned, the areas which are expected to now to become new provinces are controlled by the very families that are leading the campaign for new provinces. For instance in Punjab, there are voices demanding it to be divided into three parts. There is one movement lead by erstwhile Nawab of Bahawalpur with Senator Muhammad Ali Durrani while the other is constructed by the Legharis of Dera Ghazi Khan. One similarity that unites the leadership of both these movements: their former status as the rulers of the areas they now want as “their provinces.” On the contrary, interestingly enough, those who fear a dominant Punjab and want more provinces out of it do not wish the same for gigantic Balochistan that is 43.6 per cent of Pakistan’s geography but only 5.3 per cent of its population, which is why it gets a lesser importance in front of Punjab, which constitutes 56% of Pakistan’s population.

Electoral politics behind the new promise:

The PML (N) – Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz group, has a strong foothold in Punjab, same is true for PML (Q) – Pakistan Muslim League, Quaid-e-Azam group, which has vote bank in rural areas of Sindh and Punjab, PPP- Pakistan People’s Party and MQM-Muttahida Quami Movement have a hold in Sindh, PML (Q) and PPP have again a hold in Baluchistan.

Now this scenario is simple enough, there is a status quo in place and it works for most parties. If new provinces were to be carved out of the existing ones, it would mean loss of political might and seats.

Now let us se how the electoral politics are played through the new policy of creation of new provinces, for each of the existing one:

In case of Punjab: Punjab is like India’s UP; it has maximum number of seats in Pakistan’s National Assembly and constitutes 60% of the country’s population. Hence, the sheer numbers ensure that any party that can just manage to do well in Punjab will automatically do well nationally. Now when they talk about creating newer provinces from Punjab, what needs to be understood is that all of Punjab is not the same. South Punjab, better known as the Seraiki Belt, primarily is composed of the Seraiki community, and then there is the state of Bahawalpur, which was once a princely state. In the north, there is the Potohar Belt. Again they have their own language and are ethnic Potohari. Plus in the Center there is the GT Road Belt. Now in the present circumstances, PML-N does gain majority of votes from North and Central region. But the Southern Punjab area has a hold of PPP and PML-Q. So if new provinces were to be created, it would mean that South Punjab becomes two provinces, Central Punjab becomes one province and Potohar becomes another one. The idea that ‘if you win Punjab you can run Pakistan’ becomes redundant as the overpowering 60 per cent Punjab majority will now loss its ground. Politically, this works well for PPP and PML-Q who have new political power in the south, while leaving Potohar open. So, effectively PML-N gets relegated to Central Punjab and Northern Punjab, drastically losing political power and influence and which is why we see the reason that PML-N is not in favor of new provinces while PPP is pushing for it publicly.

In case of Sindh: Sindh if divided up in further provinces would probably end up with two units, one being Karachi-Hyderabad and the other being rest of Sindh. This means that the MQM takes one and PPP takes the other. For MQM this is good chance to consolidate their political hold as they get to run a whole province. But for PPP, this isn’t a great political favor happening on their part since, right now they run all of Sindh and have large amounts of resources at their disposal to still have a fighting chance of winning seats in Karachi. But if they agree to more provinces they will lose this advantage in terms of resources and power. This is why PPP, although talking of new provinces elsewhere, is not even mentioning provinces in context of Sindh.

In case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: The Awami National Party sought to rename the province "Pakhtunkhwa", which translates to "Land of Pakhtuns" in the Pashto language. This was opposed by some of the non-Pashtuns, and especially by parties such as PML-N and Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The PML-N derives its support in the province from primarily non-Pashtun Hazara regions. In 2010 the announcement that the province would have a new name led to a wave of protests in the Hazara region. On April 15, 2010 Pakistan's senate officially named the province "Khyber Pakhtunkhwa"(KPK) - with 80 senators in favor and 12 opposed. The MMA, who until the elections of 2008 had a majority in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government, had proposed "Afghania" as a compromise name. After the 2008 general election, the Awami National Party formed a coalition provincial government with the Pakistan Peoples Party. The Awami National Party has its strongholds in the Pashtun areas of Pakistan. Ever since KPK got its new name, there has been a vocal movement within the province to create a new province for the people of Hazara who felt left out because of ‘Hazara’ being left out of the name KPK. If, Hazara were to be made in to a separate province, it would be politically dominated by PML-N and PML-Q, who have consistently won in Haripur, Abbottabad and Hazara. Which is why, ANP and MMA are reluctant to back the call for a separate province, while PML-N and PML-Q are in favor over the creation of a new one as it tilts the political dynamics in their favor.

All in all, the creation of new provinces will change and bring about administrative efficiency and also it would reduce the influence of Punjab in Pakistani politics. The provinces have demanded more autonomy under the Eighteenth Amendment (of more provincial autonomy) will call for more resources from the Central government, which already is economically impoverished and politically unstable. There does lie in a better intention in idea of creation of more provinces but given the current economic and political conditions in Pakistan, the idea seems to be quite unrealistic and moreover it seems a mere political gimmick by the political class of the country only as to reassure and reaffirm their status quo and nothing else.